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Who will win the AL West

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Author Topic: AL West  (Read 321 times)

JasonK

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Re: AL West
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2019, 09:08:54 PM »
Sure, Sanchez was a step back.  Very much so.  I wasn't spending more than the QO on any free agents in this group, and Altuve's bid war got out of hand.  The only thing Sanchez offers over Altuve is defense.  I'll take it. Muncy....meh.  I like the add, got two pitchers out of it, then traded one of those pitchers for my best pitching spec and my highest rated reliever.  So trading Muncy improved my bullpen and my minor league system.  I'm good with that.

We'll see what happens with the sim.  I've got good platoons with great LH/RH splits, Senzatela's got a 112ERA+ projection in Coors, so I'm sure that will play better in Houston.  My bullpen is pretty well put together, and I've got a solid defensive group.  I've also got a good core with Bregman, Correa, and Springer.  You could argue they're the three best players in the division at their positions (3B, SS, RF).  I like the makeup of my roster, and I'm pretty confident it will be a contender.

That's not how ERA+ works

Let me clarify what I mean.

Senzatela has an ERA+ of 112.  He's got mediocre ERA and FIP based on playing in Coors.  His WHIP and K/BB are pretty solid, and his road splits are good.  Based on his ERA+, splits, etc, I have reason to believe he will outplay his ZIPS, ESPECIALLY since ERA+ is based on a players ballpark.
Jason K
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MarlinS

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Re: AL West
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2019, 09:11:06 PM »
There are a LOT of variables to just a projection, however, and many players here will out perform them, while others fall woefully short.

Ballpark, your defense, opposition, managerial and player tendencies, etc are all factors.
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JasonK

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Re: AL West
« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2019, 09:13:16 PM »
I stand corrected.  It is 107. I still stand behind my belief that he is going to out perform his projection. 
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DavidL

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Re: AL West
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2019, 05:22:11 AM »
Sure, Sanchez was a step back.  Very much so.  I wasn't spending more than the QO on any free agents in this group, and Altuve's bid war got out of hand.  The only thing Sanchez offers over Altuve is defense.  I'll take it. Muncy....meh.  I like the add, got two pitchers out of it, then traded one of those pitchers for my best pitching spec and my highest rated reliever.  So trading Muncy improved my bullpen and my minor league system.  I'm good with that.

We'll see what happens with the sim.  I've got good platoons with great LH/RH splits, Senzatela's got a 112ERA+ projection in Coors, so I'm sure that will play better in Houston.  My bullpen is pretty well put together, and I've got a solid defensive group.  I've also got a good core with Bregman, Correa, and Springer.  You could argue they're the three best players in the division at their positions (3B, SS, RF).  I like the makeup of my roster, and I'm pretty confident it will be a contender.

That's not how ERA+ works

Let me clarify what I mean.

Senzatela has an ERA+ of 112.  He's got mediocre ERA and FIP based on playing in Coors.  His WHIP and K/BB are pretty solid, and his road splits are good.  Based on his ERA+, splits, etc, I have reason to believe he will outplay his ZIPS, ESPECIALLY since ERA+ is based on a players ballpark.

Era+ is park neutral right?  That's why we can compare them.
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JasonK

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Re: AL West
« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2019, 07:00:06 AM »
ERA+ takes a player's ERA and normalizes it across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks and opponents. It then adjusts, so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average.

For example, Mariano Rivera's 2.21 career ERA was 105 percent better than the MLB average during the time he pitched (including adjustments for park and league). That gives him a 205 career ERA+ (the best all-time).

The formula

League ERA, adjusted for park factors x 100 / ERA

Jason K
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JasonK

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Re: AL West
« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2019, 07:01:52 AM »
Attributed to MLB.com
Jason K
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